Open Rug

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|     OOOOO  PPPP   EEEEE  N   N      RRRR   U   U   GGGG          |
|    O     O P   P  E      NN  N      R   R  U   U  G              |
|    O     O PPPP   EEEE   N N N      RRRR   U   U  G  GG          |
|    O     O P      E      N  NN      R  R   U   U  G   G          |
|     OOOOO  P      EEEEE  N   N      R   R   UUU    GGGG          |
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|                   *** OPEN RUG THEORY ***                        |
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|            "Know the Blade, Know When to Fold."                  |
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Know the Blade, Know When to Fold

Though Ponzi schemes appear dazzling and varied, they fundamentally consist of only three models: Dividend, Mutual-Aid, and Split. All Ponzi schemes are combinations of these three models.

One of crypto’s greatest values is the first-time democratization and tradeability of Ponzi schemes. Anyone can launch one, and you can even trade the schemes themselves.

Setting aside external factors, every crypto bull market is driven by fundamental innovations in Ponzi schemes. By studying Ponzi schemes, you can identify first-principles requirements for Ponzi innovation and find mega-trend level alpha in the market.

Let’s dive in 🧵

Three-Ponzi Theory Overview

	Dividend	Mutual-Aid	Split
Mechanism	One-time capital investment, linear dividends over time	A pays B, B pays C, forming cash flow mismatch	Multiply asset quantity per unit capital, attracting subsequent funds
Forms Capital Pool	✅	❌	✅
Free Entry/Exit	❌	❌	✅
Fixed Returns	❌	✅	❌
Risk Appetite	Low	Medium	High
Analogy	Debt investor	High-interest lender	Equity investor

Collapse Formula Quick Reference

profit(Dividend) = Total deposits - Total fixed dividends
profit(Mutual-Aid) = Total funds in mutual-aid state × % insider accounts ratio
profit(Split) = Total profit from project team dumping

⚠️ Always remember project teams are here to make money, calculate Profit using max values not zero

Collapse Conditions:

Dividend: New deposits < Fixed interest payments → Close platform and take remaining principal
Mutual-Aid: Global debt > Liquidatable assets + External liquidity → Stop mutual-aid, insiders exit
Split: New buy orders < Split demand OR Existing holders mass dump → Market cap profit realization

Core Principles

About	Principle
Ponzi	”Though Ponzi schemes appear dazzling, they fundamentally consist of only three models”
Audience	”Audience determines demand, demand drives supply”
Timing	”There’s no wrong time to launch, only wrong schemes for specific times”
Arbitrage	”Unless you’re Steve Jobs or Jensen Huang, all you can do is arbitrage”
Tokens	”Protect liquidity, not price; manage volatility structure, not trends”
Narrative	”The most valuable narratives must attract attention events with viral spread potential that appeal to global average IQ”
Politics	”Getting listed on Binance is the first principle”

Start Learning

Three-Ponzi Theory Overview The foundational framework

Dividend Deep Dive Low-risk creditor model

Mutual-Aid Deep Dive Medium-risk lender model

Split Deep Dive High-risk equity model

Don’t Be the Last Bagholder

Arm yourself with Open Rug Theory. Survive the dark forest.

Launch Now

Source: TheCryptoSkanda’s Open Rug Series

“Are kings, dukes, generals, and ministers born to their stations!”