Cycle Review 2024

+-----------------------------------------------------------+
|                    REVIEW 2024                             |
+-----------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                           |
|   Reflection on Three-Ponzi Theory                        |
|   Understanding the new audience                          |
|   Exploring decentralized collusion                       |
|                                                           |
+-----------------------------------------------------------+

Three-Ponzi Theory’s Premises

Three-Ponzi Theory and most Open Rug practices are based on 2013-2021 network MLM era, where scheme audiences were mainly born 1960s-1980s.

Characteristics of This Generation

Received Chinese-style livestock education and training
        +
Caught China's economic rise
        =
Blind confidence, love showing off, worship authority, limited thinking ability

Just find a “prestigious” narrative and right-angle PUA, relatively easy to make them pay

Young People Are Different

New Generation Characteristics

Livestock education even more intense
        BUT
Access information faster
        +
Hit China's economic decline
        =
Disillusionment and rebellion against existing system

Audience Determines Demand

Audience determines demand
        ↓
Demand leads to supply
        ↓
Three-Ponzi schemes are "results" of audience demand
        ↓
Can use Three-Ponzi to analyze and design
        ↓
But cannot use it to "sense the market early"
        ↓
Audience theory can

Death of Direct Sales and Hierarchical Systems

Global Direct Sales Market Shrinking

Formally shrinking since 2022, with 2023 seeing rapid decline in China, Korea, Japan - the three direct sales giants.

Impact on Scheme Circles:

Impact	Description
Team pipeline shrinking	Fewer teams to develop in future
Traffic logic replacing	Live streaming and social commerce replacing hierarchical systems

New Generation’s Approach

Don't buy what 1960s-1990s generation is selling
        ↓
Better at generating traffic, more naked CX
        ↓
Before: Team leaders sold dreams to build performance
Now: Need things that work faster to build traffic and influence
        ↓
Rushing dog coin communities or KOL-led squads
        ↓
Hierarchical commission logic being phased out

Decentralized Collusion

Success in Low Liquidity Markets

Digital collectibles, NFTs, inscriptions, Memecoin cabals form not just because of a specific “house.”

Interest Group Composition:

Project teams
Market makers
KOLs
Early discoverers and promoters
Early traders

All part of the cabal, even if they don’t know each other. I call this decentralized collusion

The Real Questions

More important than analyzing market mechanisms, these questions need answering:

Question	Significance
Who would be motivated to participate	Identify participant profiles
How do they find the market and all-in	Understand entry path
Why would they actively CX	Understand propagation motivation
How to build advantage and know you have it	Understand competitive source

What Is Cult Really

Is cult really following the project?
        or
Is cult about people, with "cult" projects just being temporary rituals?

Is the cult leader SPX6900, or Murad himself?

New Generation Sickle’s Self-Cultivation

Ponzi Is a People Business

Audience determines design, design requires team configuration.

Problems Traditional Configuration Solves

Technology, trust, customer acquisition, market cap, exit
        ↓
Execution is relatively abstract
        ↓
Most projects can only partially emphasize and streamline
        ↓
Build "professional ragtag crews" in key areas

New Questions

Based on new audience understanding:

How to configure teams?
What goals to set?
How to manage results?

Core Formulas

Three-Ponzi Theory Premises:
├── Audience: 1960s-1990s, blind confidence, worship authority
└── Era: 2013-2021 network MLM era

Era Changes:
├── Young people access information faster
├── Disillusioned and rebellious against system
├── Direct sales hierarchy dying
└── Traffic logic replacing team logic

Decentralized Collusion:
├── Cabal members may not know each other
├── Project + MM + KOL + Early traders
└── Cult is about people, projects are just rituals

New Questions:
├── Who would be motivated to participate?
├── How do they find the market?
├── Why would they actively CX?
└── How to build and know your advantage?

Three-Ponzi Theory successfully predicted many trends, but times have changed

To find new ways to scheme, we need new frameworks