Timeline 2023-2025

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|                  TIMELINE 2023-2025                        |
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|                                                           |
|   Key events and ponzi evolution this cycle               |
|                                                           |
+-----------------------------------------------------------+

2023

Q1-Q2: Deep Bear Market

Market State: Extremely low liquidity
Dominant Schemes: Low liquidity assets (pre-inscription era)
Key Events:
├── FTX aftermath continues
├── Silicon Valley Bank crisis
└── USDC brief depeg

Q3: Inscription Rise

Market State: Liquidity begins to recover
Dominant Schemes: Inscriptions (order book trading, low liquidity splits)
Key Events:
├── Ordinals ecosystem explosion
├── BRC-20 standard birth
└── NFT trading volume hits bottom

Q4: Bull Market Expectations

Market State: Liquidity expectations turn positive
Dominant Schemes: Inscriptions continue + Meme revival
Key Events:
├── BTC ETF expectations heat up
├── MoneyArk and other mutual aid schemes flash in the pan
└── FriendTech fizzles out

2024

Q1: Bull Market Begins

Market State: High liquidity
Dominant Schemes: Meme-led
Key Events:
├── BTC ETF approval
├── Inscription hype fades
├── 404/Pandora brief explosion
└── Memes start to dominate

Q2: Meme Peak

Market State: Liquidity peak
Dominant Schemes: Meme + Fair Launch
Key Events:
├── Pump.fun explosion
├── Solana Meme ecosystem
└── VC coin predicament emerges

Q3: On-Chain Migration

Market State: CEX liquidity migrates on-chain
Dominant Schemes: On-chain shitcoins + GambleFi
Key Events:
├── "VC coins are dead" becomes consensus
├── On-chain liquidity ratio rises
└── Hyperliquid rises

Q4: PVP Era

Market State: Extreme PVP-ification
Dominant Schemes: Flash schemes + Livestream coins
Key Events:
├── Pump livestream trend
├── Sidekick and other variants
└── User behavior extremification

2025

Q1: Intensifying Divergence

Market State: Liquidity polarization
Dominant Schemes: Highly segmented
Trend Judgment:
├── Old users (DeFi-oriented)
├── New users (Gambling-oriented)
└── Institutional entry (RWA-oriented)

Key Trends

Liquidity Migration

2023: CEX-dominant (85%+)
2024: CEX (70-80%) + On-chain (20-30%)
2025: Trend continues, on-chain ratio rising

Scheme Evolution

2023: Low liquidity assets dominant (Inscriptions, NFTs)
2024: High-speed splits dominant (Memes, Fair Launch)
2025: Gambling + Ponzi fusion (GambleFi)

User Generations

Old users: Complex logic, long cycles, large capital
New users: Simple and direct, fast in/out, small amounts high frequency

Lessons Learned

Event	Lesson
MoneyArk rapid death	Bull market dividend schemes can’t outrun Beta
Inscription fade	Low liquidity assets lose advantage after liquidity migration
FT collapse	Need new growth when split rate declines
Pump success	GambleFi + screen time arbitrage
VC coin predicament	CEX liquidity insufficient to support traditional path

Cycle Patterns

Bear market suitable for:
├── Low liquidity assets
├── High multiple pumps
└── Creating attention

Bull market suitable for:
├── High liquidity distribution
├── Fast dumping
└── Utilizing liquidity

Transition periods suitable for:
├── Observing signals
├── Switching strategies
└── Early positioning

“Everything is a scheme. Good projects in Crypto must first be good schemes.”

Source: @TheCryptoSkanda Open Rug Series