Case Analysis Template

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|                   ANALYSIS TEMPLATE                        |
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|                                                           |
|   "Everything is a ponzi"                                 |
|   Good crypto project = Good ponzi first                  |
|                                                           |
+-----------------------------------------------------------+

Analysis Framework

Use the following framework to analyze any crypto project:

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Step 1: Scheme Type Identification

Checklist:

Question	Dividend Ponzi	Mutual-Aid Ponzi	Split Ponzi
Forms a capital pool?	✅	❌	✅
Allows free entry/exit?	❌	❌	✅
Promises fixed returns?	❌	✅	❌

Judgment Logic:

Locked deposits + linear dividends → Dividend Ponzi elements
Capital lending + maturity mismatch → Mutual-Aid Ponzi elements
Asset multiplication + attracting inflows → Split Ponzi elements

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Step 2: Three-Scheme Combination Analysis

Most projects are three-scheme combinations, need to identify each layer:

Combination Structure Template:

Project	Elements
Project Name	_________________
Dividend Ponzi Elements	_________________
Mutual-Aid Ponzi Elements	_________________
Split Ponzi Elements	_________________

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Step 3: Collapse Condition Analysis

Determine collapse conditions based on scheme type:

Scheme Type	Collapse Condition
Dividend Ponzi	New deposits < Fixed return interest
Mutual-Aid Ponzi	Global debt > Liquidatable assets + External liquidity
Split Ponzi	New buy-side < Split demand OR Existing holders dump massively

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Step 4: Operator Profit Analysis

profit(Dividend Ponzi) = Total deposits - Total fixed dividends
profit(Mutual-Aid Ponzi) = Total mutual-aid state capital × % rat warehouse accounts
profit(Split Ponzi) = Project team dump total profits

Key Questions:

1. How does the operator extract?
2. Where are the rat warehouses?
3. What’s the exit path?

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Step 5: Liquidity Analysis

Dimension	Analysis Content
Liquidity Source	LP/Bots/Market Makers/Retail
Trading Mechanism	Order Matching/AMM/Order Book
Exit Path	On-chain DEX/CEX/OTC

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Step 6: Timing Analysis

Compare against current market:

Project liquidity requirement vs Current market liquidity
Project nominal return vs Current market Beta

Suitable: Project requirement ≤ Market supply
Not Suitable: Project requirement > Market supply

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Case Template

Project: [Name]

1. Scheme Type Identification

• Primary Type:
• Combination Elements:

2. Operating Mechanism

• Deposit Method:
• Return Source:
• Exit Mechanism:

3. Collapse Analysis

• Collapse Condition:
• Current Status:
• Risk Level:

4. Operator Analysis

• Extraction Method:
• Rat Warehouse Location:
• Estimated Profit:

5. Timing Judgment

• Liquidity Match:
• Beta Match:
• Recommendation:

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Quick Judgment Checklist

Judge a project in 5 minutes:

□ Lockup/staking mechanism? (Dividend Ponzi signal)
□ Lending/mutual-aid flow? (Mutual-Aid Ponzi signal)
□ Continuously launching new assets? (Split Ponzi signal)
□ Where's the capital pool? (Centralized/Decentralized)
□ Who's the operator? (Project team/Ecosystem/Market maker)
□ Where's exit liquidity? (DEX/CEX/None)

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Next: Glossary