Deterministic Positives & Buyback

+-----------------------------------------------------------+
|                 CARRY TRADE & BUYBACK                      |
+-----------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                           |
|   "Bad money" has its merits                              |
|                                                           |
|   Protect LIQUIDITY, not price                            |
|   Manage VOLATILITY structure, not trend                  |
|                                                           |
+-----------------------------------------------------------+

1/ Truth of Bad Money Drives Out Good

Gresham’s Law says: Bad money will drive good money out of circulation.

But think from different angle:

Since free market emphasizes supply and demand, if bad money can drive out good money, isn’t bad money more powerful?

This is essentially determined by stance + microstructure:

Scenario	Bad Money Advantage
Workplace	Flatterers drive out doers, management cost lowest
DEX	Speculative new coins eliminate long-cycle projects, trading fee income highest
Currency	Bad money cost and circulation efficiency optimal

In goal-oriented microstructures, “bad money” has advantages “good money” can’t match

2/ Where Did Good Money Go?

Good money isn’t eliminated, but collected, exits circulation, becomes store of value.

Problem never about quality, but:

Type	Representative	Characteristics
Store of Value Currency	Gold, BTC	Consensus, religion
Transactional Currency	Fiat, altcoins	Circulation priority

By logic “altcoin value is zero”, 190+ global fiat currencies also don’t need to exist

3/ Turkish Lira: Magical Fiat Currency

Lira 2025 data:

Deposit annual yield about 56.7%
Inflation about 31-34%
Annual depreciation vs USD about 21%
Implied volatility 26%

Lira is globally highest yield carry trade instrument

Carry Trade Playbook:

Borrow: Borrow low-interest safe haven currencies (Yen, Swiss Franc)
    |
    v
Buy: Exchange for Lira, capture 50%+ interest differential
    |
    v
Hedge: Hedge exchange rate risk through swaps

4/ Erdogan’s Monetary Policy

Why such monetary policy?

Stage	Strategy	Result
2018-22	Insist on low rates under high CPI high inflation	Sacrifice exchange rate for autonomy
2022-23	Want both low exchange rate and social stability	Got slapped, inflation out of control
2023-25	Excessive rate hikes 50%+	Abandon monetary policy autonomy

How Does Turkey Sustain?

High rates indeed push up inflation
    BUT
Continuous depreciation strengthens export competitiveness
    +
Mandatory export settlement
    +
Taxes, materials, labor settlement form Lira buy pressure flywheel
    +
KKM and other FX protection tools lock exchange demand

A “high trading volume but depreciating” currency far better than “no one dares touch, completely dysfunctional” currency

5/ Lira & Crypto Similarities

Similarity	Lira	Crypto
Inevitable inflation	Monetary policy driven	Token structure driven
Natural price downward pressure	Inflation brings	Unlock brings

Core Insight:

Any crypto project without full circulation cannot maintain price long-term

Any long-term unidirectional, fixed-ratio, front-runnable buyback cannot succeed

6/ Income Buyback Narrative Illusion

Hype, Pump etc. 100% income buyback story sounds beautiful, makes holders have “price has real income support” illusion.

Reality is:

Arbitrage capital can hedge in advance
    |
    v
Buyback instead consumes capital
    |
    v
Offsets price impact

Like if Turkish central bank publicly commits to stabilize exchange rate
    |
    v
Global arbitrage capital will swarm
    |
    v
Replay 97 Asian financial crisis

7/ Design Token Economics Like Erdogan

Core only two points:

Principle	Meaning
Protect liquidity, not price	Make asset always “needed”
Manage volatility structure, not trend	Give capital deterministic alpha

Token System Design:

1. Must have continuous revenue (financial protocols/top L1s)

2. Token has unavoidable "tax" function (Gas, fees)

3. Provide token-denominated interest rate differential above opportunity cost + lock conditions

4. Protocol revenue forms "central bank style treasury"
   └── Promise only used to intervene price
   └── But non-mechanical, predictable unidirectional buyback

5. Manage volatility structure based on IV/RV/depth/funding rates

8/ Dividend Mutual-Aid Model Flywheel

Dividend APY + Lock-up
    |
    v
Increase sunk cost
    |
    v
Interest rate differential + Predictable volatility
    |
    v
Trigger arbitrage behavior
    |
    v
Increase liquidatable assets and fee extraction
    |
    v
Feed treasury increase APY
    |
    v
(Loop)

Achilles Heel:

Whether system continues
Whether project continuously obtains revenue
Whether lending rates controllable

9/ Can Profit Shorting in Crypto

US stocks shorting hard because:

Mathematically returns capped
Long-term structural bull market

But crypto isn’t:

Most projects can’t reverse trend, no “macro-level reflexivity tools”

Dumping doesn’t cost money, pumping does

Real Risk of Shorting:

Doesn’t come from project itself, but counterparties

Exchange suddenly changes rules
Funding rate extreme changes
Long liquidity suddenly withdraws

XPL and MMT are very good examples

Core Formula

Token Design Principles:
├── Protect liquidity, not price
├── Manage volatility, not trend
└── Give capital deterministic alpha

Lira Survival Reasons:
├── High rates attract Carry Trade
├── Central bank manages volatility
└── Exchange rate characteristics bring real demand

Buyback Narrative Trap:
├── Unidirectional predictable buyback = Arbitrage opportunity
├── Buyback consumes capital but can't support price
└── Should use for volatility management not trend

Exchanges like you, liquid funds like you. Holders don’t like you, but this is crypto market

I’m just not that orthodox good